Notes on Climate Change I

The above map was developed by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in the UK. Basically, it introduces us to some of the key hot spots being watched by environmental scientists as CO2 levels rise in the atmosphere and threaten to alter the ecological equilibrium that has maintained for the last 6000 years (that is, since the dawn of human civilization). Much ink and focus in America and the West has been given to the possible shutdown of the Gulf stream within the next 50-100 years, which would plunge Europe back into an Ice Age. This effect alone should give the lie to the term "global warming," as it should be made clear that climate change doesn't necessarily mean that the global temperature will run away upward until Earth becomes indistinguishable from its evil twin, Venus. Instead, some places will get colder, some places will get hotter; some places will get wetter, some will get dryer.

One consequence of the climate change phenomenon that most people are unaware of is the change that is likely to be thrust upon the Sahara Desert due to changing climate patterns. In short, over the next century, the Sahara is, in all likelihood, going to become green. In fact, the process may already be happening. For the past few years, the Sahel, or southern border region of the Sahara, which had been steadily advancing southward throughout the 70's and 80's, causing drought and misery, has been retreating back northward, and land has been becoming arable again. In 2003, Mali apparently received its greatest rainfall in 600 years. As if these anecdotal happenings were not enough, recent climate models predict just such an occurrence.

Since this climate flip is easily the least-discussed of all the consequences of global climate change, its social and economic consequences are the least explored and understood. Probably the central issue with Saharan greening is that an area the size of the United States of America will become open to human habitation over the next century. As other areas of the world freeze or dry out, this will create immense pressures on Saharan nations unlike anything the world has seen in modern times. It's very unclear that the leaders of Saharan nations are in any way thinking about the changes that may be in store for their lands. It's an issue that may be as critical for them as energy independence will become for the United States.

There is one major drawback to the likely greening of the Sahara. The dust storms that rage across the Sahara every year carry across the Atlantic and bring many nutrients and important ingredients to the Amazon rainforest. Thus, the very strange result of man-made climate change might be that the "lungs" of the planet will shift across the Atlantic, from South America to North Africa, and that the most bio-diverse area on the planet will suffer an alarming dieback. That will have a devastating impact on the indigenous cultures of the Amazon. In addition, the Amazon nations, primarily Brazil, will have to deal with a remarkable change in the way their economies work. It's possible that climate change will have a devastating effect on South American agriculture, once again a social and economic effect of climate change that few seem to be contemplating outside scientific circles.

To be sure, no one is 100% certain that climate change will proceed in any one particular way, but these are likely occurrences, and it's well past the time for dialogue to begin on how to cope with these massive changes in the way the biosphere is organized, because they will have startling impacts on the way humans live our lives.